Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 70

Green Bay Packers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 30, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 30 for no gain (47-J.Ryan). PENALTY on GB-24-Q.Rollins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at KC 30.

The Three Options

GO -1.66 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.31 EP
64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model