Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 18 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 24

(10:23) 2-D.Colquitt punts 61 yards to GB 2, Center-41-J.Winchester, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model