4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 24 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(8:10) 8-T.Masthay punts 46 yards to KC 13, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 15 for 2 yards (32-C.Banjo; 30-J.Kuhn). PENALTY on KC-27-T.Branch, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at KC 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.08 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 59, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 18, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP