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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 24

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(3:06) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short middle to 81-J.Avant to GB 21 for 3 yards (24-Q.Rollins).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.73 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.00 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP