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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 13 at the 51

Green Bay Packers 38 – Kansas City Chiefs 28

What Actually Happened

(:29) 8-T.Masthay punts 40 yards to KC 11, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for 16 yards (32-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +0.90 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 51, worth -0.56 EP
KICK +0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.33 EP