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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 61

New Orleans Saints 16 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(5:48) 35-A.Johnson up the middle to NO 40 for 1 yard (56-A.Klein; 95-C.Johnson). Andrus Peat reports as eligible Carolina challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.93 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model