Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to NO: Cam Newton (CAR) -0.106 vs Luke McCown (NO) +0.293 EPA/dropback (NO starting Luke McCown in place of Drew Brees)
- CAR defense: -0.223 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- CAR offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
- NO defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
- NO offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
NO
CAR
Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:03 FG NO (9:03) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown. NO 3 – CAR 0
- Q2 11:50 TD NO (11:50) 22-M.Ingram right end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 9 – CAR 0
- Q2 05:20 TD CAR (5:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 10 – CAR 6
- Q2 00:04 FG CAR (:04) 9-G.Gano 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. NO 10 – CAR 10
- Q3 12:52 TD NO (12:52) 8-B.Nortman punts 55 yards to NO 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy for 74 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – CAR 10
- Q3 08:48 TD CAR (8:48) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short middle to 88-G.Olsen for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – CAR 16
- Q3 01:36 FG CAR (1:36) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman. NO 16 – CAR 20
- Q4 09:39 TD CAR (9:39) 1-C.Newton left end for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 16 – CAR 26
- Q4 04:55 TD NO (4:55) 29-K.Robinson left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 22 – CAR 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
-
Q1 NO 4th & 2 at the 13Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EPp(convert) 50% p(FG) 94%
(9:03) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.
-
Q1 CAR 4th & 8 at the 37Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 55%
(6:04) 8-B.Nortman punts 31 yards to NO 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-A.Klein.
-
Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 66Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39%
(2:14) 6-T.Morstead punts 47 yards to CAR 19, Center-47-J.Drescher, out of bounds.
-
Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 89%
(:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to NO 19 for 1 yard (53-R.Humber).
-
Q3 NO 4th & 1 at the 61Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 67%
(5:48) 35-A.Johnson up the middle to NO 40 for 1 yard (56-A.Klein; 95-C.Johnson). Andrus Peat reports as eligible Carolina challenged the first down ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)
-
Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 29Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 74%
(1:36) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.
-
Q4 NO 4th & 3 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(13:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 4 at the 74 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 49%
(4:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 29 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).
-
Q4 CAR 4th & 9 at the 79 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(:14) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to NO 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.