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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 79

Carolina Panthers 27 – New Orleans Saints 22

What Actually Happened

(:14) 8-B.Nortman punts 34 yards to NO 45, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 23-M.Murphy.

The Three Options

GO -0.72 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 79, worth -1.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 36, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model