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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 37

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(6:04) 8-B.Nortman punts 31 yards to NO 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-56-A.Klein.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.44 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model