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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model