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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Chip Kelly
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

PHI
18.1%
NYJ
81.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PHI offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • NYJ defense: -0.254 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) +0.268 vs Sam Bradford (PHI) -0.038 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ offense: +0.064 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (9th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

PHI 17
–
NYJ 30
Projected margin: NYJ by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

PHI

Kiko Alonso LB Out Knee
Taylor Hart DE Out Shoulder
Mychal Kendricks LB Out Hamstring
Cedric Thornton DE Out Hand
DeMarco Murray RB Questionable Hamstring
Seyi Ajirotutu WR Probable Elbow
Trey Burton TE Probable Shoulder
Fletcher Cox DE Probable Groin
Chris Maragos S Probable Hip

NYJ

Chris Owusu WR Out Knee
Trevor Reilly LB Out Finger
Darrin Walls CB Doubtful Hamstring
Eric Decker WR Questionable Knee
Willie Colon G Questionable Knee
Chris Ivory RB Questionable Quadricep
Darrelle Revis CB Questionable Groin
Stephen Bowen DE Probable Knee
Antonio Cromartie CB Probable Knee
Breno Giacomini T Probable Biceps
Jaiquawn Jarrett S Probable Shoulder
Lorenzo Mauldin LB Probable Concussion
Geno Smith QB Probable Jaw
Devin Smith WR Probable Ribs
James Carpenter G Probable Back

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 24
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 20 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:11 FG PHI (8:11) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 12:32 TD PHI (12:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 05:03 TD PHI (5:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-S.Bradford pass short right to 24-R.Mathews for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. PHI 16 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 02:16 TD PHI (2:16) (No Huddle) 43-D.Sproles left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI-66-A.Gardner was injured during the play. PHI 23 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 00:12 TD NYJ (:12) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 15-B.Marshall for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – NYJ 6
  • Q4 09:41 TD NYJ (9:41) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 11-J.Kerley for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 24 – NYJ 13
  • Q4 02:38 FG NYJ (2:38) 2-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley. PHI 24 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 73
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (12:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 95%

    (8:11) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 20%

    (6:24) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to PHI 2, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-20-M.Williams.

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 13 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:39) 8-D.Jones punts 54 yards to NYJ 37, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 24%

    (:44) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to PHI 9, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 3 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (13:50) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 33 for 15 yards (46-J.Dorenbos).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles for 89 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (10:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (10:03) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 27 for 9 yards (52-B.Jones).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (8:24) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for no gain (41-B.Skrine).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 11 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 19%

    (13:02) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 10 for no gain.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (10:24) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYJ 32, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to PHI 49 for 19 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:03) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 30 for 8 yards (38-E.Biggers).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:30) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 5 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:55) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 19 for 4 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 5 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:55) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to NYJ 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 31 for 8 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 80 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:12) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (47-T.Burton).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 35 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 62%

    (2:38) 2-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.