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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 73

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(12:32) 4-R.Quigley punts 44 yards to PHI 29, Center-46-T.Purdum, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.67 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 73, worth -4.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 31, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP