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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 57

New York Jets 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(11:06) 4-R.Quigley punts 47 yards to PHI 10, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles ran ob at PHI 10 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.04 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 57, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 17, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model