Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 7

(6:03) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to NYJ 22, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 30 for 8 yards (38-E.Biggers).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.13 EP
67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 78, worth -4.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model