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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 75

New York Jets 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 30, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.14 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 75, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model