Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 63

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 14

(4:55) 8-D.Jones punts 40 yards to NYJ 23, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 31 for 8 yards (16-S.Ajirotutu).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 63, worth -3.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model