Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 80

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 14

(3:12) 8-D.Jones punts 37 yards to NYJ 43, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 49 for 6 yards (47-T.Burton).

The Three Options

GO -2.80 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.60 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 80, worth -4.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model