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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 35

New York Jets 14 – Philadelphia Eagles 24

What Actually Happened

(2:38) 2-N.Folk 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model