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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Houston Texans
4th & 4 at the 38
Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(14:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
+0.82 EP
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.82 EP
- 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.44 EP
KICK
+0.77 EP
- 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.84 EP
- 41% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT
+0.55 EP
What Happened
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
