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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Lovie Smith
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Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2015-09-27 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

TB
35.7%
HOU
64.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • TB offense: -0.185 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.166 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TB defense: +0.101 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • QB edge to HOU: Ryan Mallett (HOU) -0.090 vs Jameis Winston (TB) -0.168 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

TB 18
–
HOU 24
Projected margin: HOU by 6 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

TB

Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Out Shoulder
Evan Smith C Doubtful Ankle
Major Wright S Doubtful Abdomen
T.J. Fatinikun DE Questionable Shoulder
Mike Jenkins CB Questionable Hamstring
D.J. Swearinger S Questionable Shoulder
Gerald McCoy DT Questionable Shoulder
Mike Evans WR Probable Hamstring

HOU

Jeff Adams T Out Knee
Lonnie Ballentine S Out Knee
Duane Brown T Out Hand
Mike Mohamed LB Out Calf
Arian Foster RB Out Groin
C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Questionable Knee
Jonathan Grimes RB Questionable Knee
Xavier Su'a-Filo G Questionable Calf
Chris Clark T Probable Knee
DeAndre Hopkins WR Probable Concussion
Derek Newton T Probable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 9
–
HOU 19

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:02 TD HOU (5:02) (Shotgun) 15-R.Mallett pass short right to 10-D.Hopkins for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 11:20 FG TB (11:20) 2-K.Brindza 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum. TB 3 – HOU 7
  • Q2 04:01 TD TB (4:01) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short left to 34-C.Sims for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – HOU 7
  • Q3 12:42 FG HOU (12:42) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TB 9 – HOU 10
  • Q4 09:19 TD HOU (9:19) 28-A.Blue left tackle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 9 – HOU 16
  • Q4 01:15 FG HOU (1:15) 4-R.Bullock 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. TB 9 – HOU 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (12:41) 9-S.Lechler punts 54 yards to TB 8, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey MUFFS catch, and recovers at TB 8. 43-B.Rainey to TB 12 for 4 yards (29-A.Hal).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 15 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (9:03) 5-J.Schum punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 36 for no gain (21-A.Verner).

  • Q1 TB 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:10) 5-J.Schum punts 28 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 4 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 59%

    (14:24) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 54%

    (11:20) 2-K.Brindza 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 12 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (5:00) 5-J.Schum punts 50 yards to HOU 35, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 42 for 7 yards (51-D.Lansanah). PENALTY on HOU-50-A.Dent, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 85%

    (1:35) 4-R.Bullock 43 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 39%

    (:55) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 5 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 89%

    (12:42) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:20) 5-J.Schum punts 55 yards to HOU 4, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 9 for 5 yards (51-D.Lansanah). FUMBLES (51-D.Lansanah), recovered by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 6. 59-W.Mercilus to HOU 6 for no gain (51-D.Lansanah).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TB 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to HOU 44 for 13 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 6 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 87%

    (7:21) 2-K.Brindza 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 15 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to TB 26 for 23 yards (55-B.McKinney, 57-J.Tuggle).

  • Q3 TB 4th & 4 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (3:34) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to HOU 16, Center-48-A.DePaola. 18-C.Shorts to HOU 16 for no gain (89-R.Shepard).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 4 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 44%

    (15:00) 9-S.Lechler punts 34 yards to TB 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to TB 15 for 5 yards (45-J.Prosch; 46-J.Weeks).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 94%

    (10:59) 2-K.Brindza 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 5 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (8:16) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to HOU 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 18-C.Shorts pushed ob at HOU 33 for 8 yards (48-A.DePaola). PENALTY on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 33.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 61% p(FG) 98%

    (1:15) 4-R.Bullock 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.