Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 85

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(5:00) 5-J.Schum punts 50 yards to HOU 35, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 42 for 7 yards (51-D.Lansanah). PENALTY on HOU-50-A.Dent, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 42.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.78 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model