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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 46

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(:55) 5-J.Schum punts 35 yards to HOU 11, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.04 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.11 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.45 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model