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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 21

Houston Texans 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 4-R.Bullock 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.97 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.41 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model