Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:20) 5-J.Schum punts 55 yards to HOU 4, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 9 for 5 yards (51-D.Lansanah). FUMBLES (51-D.Lansanah), recovered by HOU-59-W.Mercilus at HOU 6. 59-W.Mercilus to HOU 6 for no gain (51-D.Lansanah).

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.59 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model