Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 12 at the 96

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

(9:28) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TB 43, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to HOU 44 for 13 yards (35-E.Pleasant).

The Three Options

GO -3.67 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.80 EP
67% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 96, worth -5.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model