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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 2-K.Brindza 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +0.94 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.88 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model