4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 15 at the 56

Houston Texans 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(4:40) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to TB 3, Center-46-J.Weeks. 43-B.Rainey to TB 26 for 23 yards (55-B.McKinney, 57-J.Tuggle).

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.15 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 56, worth -2.95 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model