Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 10

(3:34) 5-J.Schum punts 52 yards to HOU 16, Center-48-A.DePaola. 18-C.Shorts to HOU 16 for no gain (89-R.Shepard).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.78 EP
55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model