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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:59) 2-K.Brindza 33 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.29 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 15, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model