Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to HOU 25, Center-48-A.DePaola. 18-C.Shorts pushed ob at HOU 33 for 8 yards (48-A.DePaola). PENALTY on HOU-30-K.Johnson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.46 EP
58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model