Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 15 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 0

(9:03) 5-J.Schum punts 43 yards to HOU 36, Center-48-A.DePaola. 13-C.Worthy to HOU 36 for no gain (21-A.Verner).

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.51 EP
74% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model