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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 1

Houston Texans 16 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 4-R.Bullock 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

The Three Options

GO +3.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.37 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 1, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP