Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Houston Texans 7

(3:10) 5-J.Schum punts 28 yards to HOU 28, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 18-C.Shorts.

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.55 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 56, worth -3.22 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model