4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 26

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 12

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.18 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 26, worth -1.39 EP
KICK +1.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model