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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
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New York Giants

HC Tom Coughlin
Thursday 2015-09-24 · 20:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

WAS
48.0%
NYG
52.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG defense: +0.110 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.213 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NYG offense: +0.055 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Eli Manning (NYG): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • WAS offense: -0.030 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 24
–
NYG 25
Projected margin: NYG by 1 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 3

WAS

DeSean Jackson WR Out Hamstring
Justin Rogers CB Out Foot
Perry Riley LB Questionable Calf
Tom Compton T Questionable Calf
DeAngelo Hall CB Probable Rib
Terrance Knighton DT Probable Rib
Shawn Lauvao G Probable Calf
Kory Lichtensteiger C Probable Finger
Morgan Moses T Probable Knee

NYG

Victor Cruz WR Out Calf
Jerome Cunningham TE Out Knee
Markus Kuhn DT Out Knee
Owamagbe Odighizuwa DE Out Foot
Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Out Concussion
Ereck Flowers T Doubtful Ankle
Robert Ayers DE Questionable Hamstring
Jon Beason LB Probable Knee
Daniel Fells TE Probable Foot
Cullen Jenkins DE Probable Hamstring
Geoff Schwartz G Probable Illness
Jay Bromley DT Probable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 21
–
NYG 32

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 4 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:53 SAF NYG (12:53) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 23-R.Jennings, Center-57-N.Sundberg, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. WAS 0 – NYG 2
  • Q1 06:39 TD NYG (6:39) 44-A.Williams left end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – NYG 8
  • Q1 00:43 FG NYG (:43) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 0 – NYG 12
  • Q2 11:36 FG WAS (11:36) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – NYG 12
  • Q2 07:36 FG NYG (7:36) 3-J.Brown 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 3 – NYG 15
  • Q2 01:48 FG WAS (1:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 6 – NYG 15
  • Q3 07:34 FG NYG (7:34) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing. WAS 6 – NYG 18
  • Q4 13:46 TD NYG (13:46) (No Huddle) 10-E.Manning pass deep middle to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – NYG 24
  • Q4 03:44 TD WAS (3:44) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 12 – NYG 25
  • Q4 03:29 TD NYG (3:29) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass deep right to 82-R.Randle for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 14 – NYG 31
  • Q4 03:21 TD WAS 3-J.Brown kicks 66 yards from NYG 35 to WAS -1. 19-R.Ross for 101 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – NYG 32

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 12 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (12:53) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 23-R.Jennings, Center-57-N.Sundberg, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 29%

    (9:10) 9-B.Wing punts 37 yards to WAS 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder. PENALTY on WAS-59-T.Plummer, Offensive Holding, 6 yards, enforced at WAS 12.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:37) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NYG 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, recovered by NYG-26-O.Darkwa at NYG 36. 26-O.Darkwa to NYG 36 for no gain (20-J.Johnson). Officially, a return for 0 yards.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 8 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (:43) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 4 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 82%

    (11:36) 3-D.Hopkins 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 7 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (7:36) 3-J.Brown 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 90%

    (1:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 46
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%

    (:19) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to WAS 1, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, downed by NYG-51-Z.DeOssie.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 1 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 56%

    (8:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. to WAS 34 for 4 yards (26-B.Breeland).

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 6 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 75%

    (7:34) 3-J.Brown 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 51%

    (12:03) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 14-R.Grant to NYG 34 for 6 yards (38-T.McBride). Penalty on NYG-28-J.Hosley, Illegal Use of Hands, declined.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (9:42) 31-M.Jones left end to NYG 2 for 5 yards (31-T.Wade). FUMBLES (31-T.Wade), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (7:31) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to WAS 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 9 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.97 EP
    p(convert) 36%

    (5:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short middle to 25-C.Thompson to WAS 45 for 10 yards (47-U.Unga).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 10 at the 56 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (1:56) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 22 for 10 yards (94-M.Herzlich).