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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 9 at the 19

Washington Commanders 3 – New York Giants 15

What Actually Happened

(1:48) 3-D.Hopkins 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.82 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 19, worth -0.87 EP
KICK +1.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model