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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 83

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(12:53) 5-T.Way punt is BLOCKED by 23-R.Jennings, Center-57-N.Sundberg, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY.

The Three Options

GO -3.08 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 83, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 41, worth -2.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model