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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 7

Washington Commanders 6 – New York Giants 25

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 31-M.Jones left end to NYG 2 for 5 yards (31-T.Wade). FUMBLES (31-T.Wade), ball out of bounds in End Zone, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +3.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 7, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model