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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Giants 25 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(7:31) 9-B.Wing punts 45 yards to WAS 26, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.01 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.26 EP