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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 56

New York Giants 32 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 9-B.Wing punts 44 yards to WAS 12, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 80-J.Crowder pushed ob at WAS 22 for 10 yards (94-M.Herzlich).

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.05 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -1.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model