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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 71

Washington Commanders 0 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 5-T.Way punts 36 yards to NYG 35, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 17-D.Harris MUFFS catch, recovered by NYG-26-O.Darkwa at NYG 36. 26-O.Darkwa to NYG 36 for no gain (20-J.Johnson). Officially, a return for 0 yards.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP