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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Giants
4th & 8 at the 17
New York Giants 9 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(:43) 3-J.Brown 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Holder-9-B.Wing.
The Three Options
GO
+1.22 EP
-
30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.46 EP
- 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 17, worth -0.59 EP
KICK
+2.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
- 8% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 27, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT
-0.01 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
