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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 85

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(4:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.48 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.31 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model