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Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Thursday 2015-10-01 · 20:25 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

BAL
40.7%
PIT
59.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: +0.253 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Michael Vick (PIT): -0.313 EPA/dropback in prior starts (PIT starting Michael Vick in place of Ben Roethlisberger)
  • BAL offense: -0.043 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 20
–
PIT 24
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 4

BAL

Chris Canty DE Out Calf
Crockett Gillmore TE Out Calf
Eugene Monroe T Out Concussion
Breshad Perriman WR Out Knee

PIT

Daniel McCullers DT Out Knee
Matt Spaeth TE Out Hand
Ryan Shazier LB Out Shoulder
Ben Roethlisberger QB Out Knee
Cortez Allen CB Questionable Knee
Cody Wallace C Probable Illness
James Harrison LB Probable Thumb

Pulled fresh for 2015 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 23
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:46 FG PIT (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. BAL 0 – PIT 3
  • Q1 00:32 TD BAL (:32) 15-M.Campanaro right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – PIT 3
  • Q2 01:48 TD PIT (1:48) 74-C.Hubbard reported in as eligible. 26-L.Bell right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – PIT 9
  • Q2 00:03 FG PIT (:03) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry. Penalty on BAL-41-A.Levine, Defensive Offside, declined. BAL 7 – PIT 13
  • Q3 10:47 TD PIT (10:47) (Shotgun) 2-M.Vick pass short left to 88-D.Heyward-Bey for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 7 – PIT 19
  • Q3 07:32 TD BAL (7:32) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-K.Aiken for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – PIT 20
  • Q4 10:19 FG BAL (10:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – PIT 20
  • Q4 00:07 FG BAL (:07) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 20 – PIT 20
  • Q5 05:13 FG BAL (5:13) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 23 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 15 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 21 for 13 yards (34-L.Taliaferro).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 79%

    (7:46) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (13:31) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 38 yards to BAL 41, Center-60-G.Warren, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 45%

    (6:57) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 32 yards to BAL 9, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 21-L.Webb.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51%

    (4:54) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 52 yards to PIT 33, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:52) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to PIT 31, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown to PIT 40 for 9 yards (28-B.Trawick). PENALTY on BAL-44-K.Juszczyk, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 40.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 89%

    (4:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 23 for -3 yards (51-S.Spence).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 14 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:20) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 41 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 1 at the 51
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 22%

    (:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 44 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake, 94-L.Timmons).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 12 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%

    (10:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (7:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 12, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 43 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 40%

    (4:20) 5-J.Flacco up the middle to PIT 43 for no gain (91-S.Tuitt, 92-J.Harrison).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 5 at the 31 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 71%

    (2:29) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:11) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco sacked at BAL 29 for -10 yards (92-J.Harrison).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 23 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 85%

    (1:06) (Field Goal formation) 8-J.Scobee 41 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-60-G.Warren, Holder-4-J.Berry.