Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 77

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

(13:42) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to BAL 40, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 15-M.Campanaro.

The Three Options

GO -1.49 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 77, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model