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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 65

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:51) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 57 yards to PIT 8, Center-46-M.Cox. 84-A.Brown pushed ob at PIT 21 for 13 yards (34-L.Taliaferro).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model