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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 20

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(4:27) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Koch pass short middle to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 23 for -3 yards (51-S.Spence).

The Three Options

GO +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.64 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 20, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model