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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 51

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(:24) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 82-N.Boyle to PIT 44 for 7 yards (41-A.Blake, 94-L.Timmons).

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model