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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 12 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(10:19) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.11 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.75 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model