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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 63

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:43) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 51 yards to BAL 12, Center-60-G.Warren, downed by PIT-29-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.00 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model